CryptoExpires Oct 1, 2026
Creator

Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$490.81

Liquidity

$105.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.0pp 7d
1007550250
7¢
May 11, 2026, 06:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 05:07 UTC
updated 05:07:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T05-07Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Oct 1, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3263.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

updated 05:07:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 05:07:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventBitcoin all time high by ___?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

bitcoin

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "bitcoin" — matched the Crypto rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 05:07:48 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Oct 1, 2026 (2026-10-01T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$490.81 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $705.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $105.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket