UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

Probability

10¢

1h

-5.1pp

24h

-4.7pp

24h Vol

$119.59

Liquidity

$3.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (10.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.0pp 7d
1007550250
10¢
May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:46 UTC
updated 09:46:20 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-46Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 10¢; -5.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 10.3¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1022.2h

    LOW
  • 09:46Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-4.7pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.

Biggest hourly move: +8.1pp at May 14, 08:00 UTC (to 13¢).

Show top 8 of 63 hourly moves
  • May 14, 21:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 20:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 17:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 15:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 11:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 12¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · +8.1pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · +8.1pp → 13¢
updated 09:46:20 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 09:46:20 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventNext James Bond actor?

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:46:20 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.7pp in the last 24 hours, -5.1pp in the last hour, and +7.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$119.59 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $144.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket