ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss?
Probability
51¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.82
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (94.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 94.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (94.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 14:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the pre-match coin toss for the cricket match between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka scheduled for 2026-03-21 in ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka. This market resolves according to the official coin toss result (the team recorded as having won the toss) as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. If an official toss winner is recorded, the market will resolve based on that result even if the match is subsequently delayed, relocated, abandoned, or no ball is bowled. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open and resolve according to the toss result for the listed fixture when it is eventually played. If the fixture is permanently canceled, forfeited before any toss is conducted, or otherwise completed without an official toss winner being recorded, the market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
odi seriesReason
ODI series markets are cricket, hence Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 14:17:26 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +1.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Mar 29, 2026 (2026-03-29T01:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $243.74. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.82. Spread between best bid and best ask: 94.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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