TechMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 1, 2026
Creator

Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026?

Probability

3¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$6.3K

Liquidity

$6.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.1pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:02 UTC
updated 08:02:29 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-02Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $6.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 1, 04:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 332.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.5pp at 04:00 (to 3¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
  • 08:00 · -4.3pp → 3¢
  • 07:00 · -3.8pp → 3¢
  • 05:00 · -4.3pp → 3¢
  • 04:00 · -4.5pp → 3¢
  • May 16, 07:00 UTC · +3.6pp → 8¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · +4.1pp → 8¢
  • May 16, 04:00 UTC · +3.8pp → 8¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · -3.7pp → 5¢
updated 08:02:29 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 08:02:29 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventElon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of May 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Tech

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

elon musk

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "elon musk" — matched the Tech rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:02:29 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and -5.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/elonmusk.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$6.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $36.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

14 wallets
Open on Polymarket