FaZe roster change Before GTA VI?
Probability
85¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$664.06
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves FaZe Clan’s active Counter-Strike 2 roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the FaZe Clan Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/FaZe_Clan) before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. As of market creation the active roster consists of the following players: broky, frozen, jcobbb, and Twistzz. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match will not count. If no qualifying roster change is confirmed at the time GTA VI is released, this market will resolve to “No” immediately. For the purposes of this market, “release” refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the United States. Early access, beta versions, or leaks do not qualify. A release limited to specific platforms (e.g., console-only) will qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Liquipedia, Rockstar Games, or Take-Two Interactive; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
gta viReason
Grand Theft Auto VI release-date markets are Entertainment / gaming, not Unclassified.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "FaZe roster change Before GTA VI?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:50:49 GMT, YES is priced at 85% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -2.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $12.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $664.06. Spread between best bid and best ask: 8.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.