Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

• 02
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $2.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, the “Outage” annotation associated with the nationwide internet shutdown must cease to apply to newly published hourly data points for at least 24 consecutive hours in the “Traffic trends” chart for the last 4 weeks. During this same period, the same chart must show a clear increase in either Total bytes or HTTP bytes relative to the outage period, indicating a meaningful restoration of internet traffic. Only the first of the consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.

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