Major US official out by May 31?

• 01
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 5.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.