SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.8pp
24h
+0.8pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5437.0h
- 11:00SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.8pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 10:00 (to 5¢).
Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
- 10:00 · -5.0pp → 5¢
- 09:00 · -4.1pp → 6¢
- 08:00 · -4.6pp → 7¢
- 07:00 · -3.9pp → 6¢
- May 16, 21:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 11¢
- May 16, 10:00 UTC · +3.9pp → 11¢
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · +4.2pp → 11¢
- May 15, 16:00 UTC · +4.3pp → 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990). This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met: - An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs. If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No” The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
acquisitionReason
Company acquisition markets are Business.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:00:30 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.8pp in the last hour, and -1.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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