StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: +3.2pp at 03:00 (to 4¢).
Show 2 hourly moves
- 06:00 · +3.0pp → 4¢
- 03:00 · +3.2pp → 4¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 2¢+0.1
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $378.00
- 1¢-0.1
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $5.00
- 12¢0.0
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $218.13
- 4¢+1.8
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $211.08
- 17¢-0.5
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 7¢-0.7
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $29.49
- 41¢-1.5
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $325.27
- 70¢-0.5
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $153.74
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 13:48:01 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.7pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and +1.7pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $54.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.