PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?

Probability

22¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
1007550250
22¢
May 11, 2026, 13:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 12:46 UTC
updated 12:46:35 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T12-46Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 21.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5435.2h

    LOW
  • 12:46Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.

Biggest hourly move: +6.0pp at May 14, 03:00 UTC (to 27¢).

Show top 8 of 20 hourly moves
  • May 17, 00:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 22¢
  • May 16, 21:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 22¢
  • May 16, 16:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 22¢
  • May 14, 10:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 27¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 26¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 27¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 26¢
  • May 14, 03:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 27¢
updated 12:46:35 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 12:46:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

signed into law

Reason

Legislation signed into law — Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:46:35 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $418.78. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 21.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket