USDS depeg by December 31?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 23.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USDS-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of USDS below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2026 will count. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the USDS-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDSUSD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth USDS-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary USDS information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDS was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.