Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title?
Probability
4¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$179.00
Liquidity
$4.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Oct 11, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 3494.1h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.6pp at May 16, 13:00 UTC (to 10¢).
Show top 8 of 39 hourly moves
- May 16, 13:00 UTC · +7.6pp → 10¢
- May 16, 11:00 UTC · +5.9pp → 8¢
- May 16, 09:00 UTC · +5.9pp → 8¢
- May 16, 08:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 9¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · +6.6pp → 9¢
- May 16, 03:00 UTC · +4.7pp → 7¢
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · +5.2pp → 7¢
- May 14, 20:00 UTC · +5.2pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB American League East division. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the team whose listed nickname comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named the 2026 American League East division champion per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
mlb Reason
MLB — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:51:11 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and +0.2pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Oct 11, 2026 (2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$179.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.3¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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