Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryon-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sourcesLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryon-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sourcesLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 1, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5470.6h
- 06:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point. This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
revenueReason
Question text contains "revenue" — matched the Business keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:23:03 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 1, 2027 (2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $14.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
20 wallets- Made-Up-Passenger3.2K
- Sweaty-Yard1.0K
- Belated-Glue218
- Innocent-Stain196
- Buzzing-Vendor130