Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 1, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5469.5h
- 07:31SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.0pp at May 13, 20:00 UTC (to 25¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- May 14, 07:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 25¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 28¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 28¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 27¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 27¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 28¢
- May 13, 21:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 28¢
- May 13, 20:00 UTC · -10.0pp → 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ConsenSys (the parent company of MetaMask) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If ConsenSys is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ipo Reason
IPO markets are Business / corporate-finance events.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:31:32 GMT, YES is priced at 26% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -10.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 1, 2027 (2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $166.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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