Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$92.14
Liquidity
$1.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Feb 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 6852.1h
- 11:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+4.5pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at 08:00 (to 14¢).
Show top 8 of 52 hourly moves
- 11:55 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 10:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 09:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 08:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 07:00 · +4.0pp → 13¢
- 05:00 · +4.0pp → 13¢
- 03:00 · +4.0pp → 13¢
- 00:00 · +4.0pp → 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
oscarReason
Question text contains "oscar" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:55:20 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +4.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +1.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Feb 28, 2027 (2027-02-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$92.14 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.