PoliticsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump dance on May 18, 2026?

Probability

6¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.3pp

24h Vol

$77.00

Liquidity

$5.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
video footage
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-34.5pp 7d
1007550250
6¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:08 UTC
updated 08:08:46 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-08Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 303.9h

    LOW
  • 08:08Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.3pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: -37.6pp at May 16, 15:00 UTC (to 7¢).

Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
  • May 16, 20:00 UTC · -34.7pp → 7¢
  • May 16, 19:00 UTC · -35.8pp → 7¢
  • May 16, 17:00 UTC · -35.4pp → 7¢
  • May 16, 15:00 UTC · -37.6pp → 7¢
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · -30.8pp → 11¢
  • May 15, 10:00 UTC · -32.4pp → 9¢
  • May 14, 06:00 UTC · +23.5pp → 43¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · +25.0pp → 45¢
updated 08:08:46 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 08:08:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWill Trump dance on...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump dance on May 18, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:08:46 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -34.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$77.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $975.22. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

16 wallets
Open on Polymarket