UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 30, 2026
Creator

Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?

Probability

25¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-3.8pp

24h Vol

$460.92

Liquidity

$1.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the winner of The Bachelorette Season 22
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (7.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.8pp 7d
1007550250
25¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:04 UTC
updated 07:04:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-04Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 25¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 7.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Nov 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4696.9h

    LOW
  • 07:04Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-3.8pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.

Biggest hourly move: -22.9pp at May 14, 00:00 UTC (to 22¢).

Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · -13.7pp → 22¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · -16.5pp → 23¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · -21.8pp → 23¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 25¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · -17.6pp → 25¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · -22.7pp → 21¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · -22.9pp → 22¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · -21.8pp → 23¢
updated 07:04:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:04:30 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventBachelorette Season 22 Winner

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of The Bachelorette Season 22. The winner is defined as the contestant who receives the final rose from the Bachelorette. Any changes in relationship status after the final rose ceremony including the "After the Final Rose" segment will not be considered. If no rose is given, or the finale ends without a final rose ceremony, this market will resolve to "Other". If the final episode of the bachelorette is not publicly available by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The official resolution source will be the finale episode of The Bachelorette Season 22.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:04:30 GMT, YES is priced at 25% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.8pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and -3.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 30, 2026 (2026-11-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$460.92 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $15.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket