Will Drake have exactly 7 songs in the Billboard top 10?
Probability
24¢
1h
+12.1pp
24h
-11.6pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the number of spots songs by or featuring Drake hold in the top 10 spots of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the weekLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (46.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 24¢; +12.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 46.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the number of spots songs by or featuring Drake hold in the top 10 spots of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the weekLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (46.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 269.5h
- 18:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-11.6pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.
Biggest hourly move: -29.0pp at May 15, 00:00 UTC (to 9¢).
Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
- 18:00 · -17.5pp → 20¢
- 17:00 · -16.1pp → 22¢
- 03:00 · -20.5pp → 17¢
- May 17, 15:00 UTC · +25.9pp → 35¢
- May 17, 13:00 UTC · +29.0pp → 38¢
- May 15, 02:00 UTC · -27.2pp → 9¢
- May 15, 00:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 9¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · -24.9pp → 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of spots songs by or featuring Drake hold in the top 10 spots of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week titled "Week of May 30, 2026". A qualifying song must credit Drake as an artist. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
billboardReason
Question text contains "billboard" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Drake have exactly 7 songs in the Billboard top 10?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 18:32:34 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -11.6pp in the last 24 hours, +12.1pp in the last hour, and -12.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $116.83. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 46.2¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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