SportsExpires Jul 19, 2026
Creator

Will Eminem perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

Probability

49¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$4.90

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (95.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.5pp 7d
1007550250
49¢
May 11, 2026, 12:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 11:06 UTC
updated 11:06:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T11-06Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 95.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 19, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1476.9h

    LOW
  • 11:06Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.

Biggest hourly move: +26.5pp at May 14, 18:00 UTC (to 42¢).

Show top 8 of 53 hourly moves
  • May 16, 15:00 UTC · +15.0pp → 49¢
  • May 15, 16:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 50¢
  • May 15, 00:00 UTC · +23.0pp → 49¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 49¢
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · +26.5pp → 42¢
  • May 14, 17:00 UTC · +22.5pp → 42¢
  • May 14, 16:00 UTC · +17.0pp → 39¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · +15.0pp → 44¢
updated 11:06:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 11:06:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will perform at 2026 FIFA World Cup halftime show?
Category · Sports

Market Description

FIFA has confirmed that the first World Cup halftime show will take place at the FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The show will be produced by Global Citizen. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show on July 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying performance includes any live appearance during the halftime show, including guest appearances, even if the artist does not perform a full set. If this event is cancelled, postponed, or rescheduled beyond September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage of the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Eminem perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:06:31 GMT, YES is priced at 49% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +2.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 19, 2026 (2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $81.62. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.90. Spread between best bid and best ask: 95.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

2 wallets
Open on Polymarket