PoliticsExpires Apr 17, 2027
Creator

Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Probability

40¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.9K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 17, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.5pp 7d
1007550250
40¢
May 11, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 16:31 UTC
updated 16:32:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T16-32Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 40¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Apr 17, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 7999.5h

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 40¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at May 15, 10:00 UTC (to 40¢).

Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 40¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 40¢
  • May 15, 16:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 40¢
  • May 15, 15:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 40¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 40¢
  • May 15, 12:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 40¢
  • May 15, 11:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 39¢
  • May 15, 10:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 40¢
updated 16:32:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 16:32:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Category · Politics

Market Description

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 16:32:03 GMT, YES is priced at 40% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +4.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Apr 17, 2027 (2027-04-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $81.31. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

8 wallets
Open on Polymarket