SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Probability

25¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.3pp

24h Vol

$2.5K

Liquidity

$3.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
iplt20.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+8.3pp 7d
1007550250
25¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:58 UTC
updated 06:58:21 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-58Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $3.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 305.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.

Biggest hourly move: +12.3pp at May 15, 03:00 UTC (to 27¢).

Show top 8 of 29 hourly moves
  • May 15, 03:00 UTC · +12.3pp → 27¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · +9.7pp → 25¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 25¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · +9.7pp → 25¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · +9.0pp → 25¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · +9.0pp → 25¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · +9.1pp → 25¢
  • May 13, 19:00 UTC · +9.4pp → 26¢
updated 06:58:21 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:58:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same event2026 IPL Champion
Category · Sports

Market Description

The 2026 Indian Premier League (IPL) T20 cricket competition is scheduled to take place from March 26 to May 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 Indian Premier League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Indian Premier League based on the rules of the competition (e.g., they do not advance to the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 Indian Premier League season is permanently canceled or there is otherwise no winner declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be the IPL (https://www.iplt20.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

premier league

Reason

EPL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:58:21 GMT, YES is priced at 25% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +8.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$2.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $90.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket