Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
+1.3pp
24h Vol
$4.6K
Liquidity
$12.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 2¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $12.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 300.4h
Price movement
+1.3pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
13- 8¢+2.9
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Sports · Vol $4.8K
- 26¢+1.9
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Sports · Vol $2.5K
- 6¢-7.2
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Sports · Vol $29.6K
- 6¢-3.8
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Sports · Vol $13.9K
- 35¢+5.5
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Sports · Vol $5.0K
- 16¢-0.5
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Sports · Vol $3.9K
- 50¢0.0
Will another team win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 1¢-0.1
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 1¢-0.1
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $739.9K
- 0¢-32.5
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs
Sports · Vol $724.1K
- 33¢+1.0
Spurs vs. Thunder
Sports · Vol $723.3K
- 0¢-69.5
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs
Sports · Vol $702.2K
- 17¢0.0
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $658.8K
Market Description
The 2026 Indian Premier League (IPL) T20 cricket competition is scheduled to take place from March 26 to May 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 Indian Premier League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Indian Premier League based on the rules of the competition (e.g., they do not advance to the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 Indian Premier League season is permanently canceled or there is otherwise no winner declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be the IPL (https://www.iplt20.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
premier leagueReason
EPL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:35:39 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.3pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $100.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $12.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.