Will Hong Kong have between 200-210mm of precipitation in May?
Probability
31¢
1h
-2.1pp
24h
-7.7pp
24h Vol
$20.15
Liquidity
$224.87
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between May 1 and May 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong ObservatoryLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (59.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 31¢; -2.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 59.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between May 1 and May 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong ObservatoryLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (59.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 299.3h
- 12:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-7.7pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.
Biggest hourly move: -15.9pp at 07:00 (to 23¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 12:00 · -14.3pp → 22¢
- 10:00 · -8.0pp → 32¢
- 07:00 · -15.9pp → 23¢
- 05:00 · -5.3pp → 35¢
- 02:00 · +5.4pp → 39¢
- May 16, 03:00 UTC · -7.6pp → 33¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 30¢
- May 15, 13:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between May 1 and May 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in May 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Hong Kong have between 200-210mm of precipitation in May?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:44:22 GMT, YES is priced at 31% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.7pp in the last 24 hours, -2.1pp in the last hour, and -9.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$20.15 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $139.33. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $224.87. Spread between best bid and best ask: 59.6¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.