Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
Probability
4¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
-0.2pp
24h Vol
$165.22
Liquidity
$17.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryIsraeli governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $17.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryIsraeli governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 22:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1046.0h
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
israelReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "israel" — matched the Geopolitics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:01:55 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and -0.6pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T22:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$165.22 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $171.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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