PoliticsExpires Apr 23, 2027
Creator

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.2pp

24h

+0.3pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 23, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.1pp 7d
1007550250
99¢
May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:54 UTC
updated 09:54:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-54Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Apr 23, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 8150.1h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at May 17, 01:00 UTC (to 92¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • May 17, 01:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 92¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · +3.9pp → 99¢
updated 09:54:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 09:54:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventFrench Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Category · Politics

Market Description

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:54:58 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.2pp in the last hour, and +0.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Apr 23, 2027 (2027-04-23T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

15 wallets
Open on Polymarket