Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-17.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 9, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 521.0h
- 07:02SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -27.2pp at May 14, 20:00 UTC (to 4¢).
Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
- 06:00 · -23.5pp → 3¢
- 18:00 · -27.1pp → 3¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · -22.3pp → 5¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 27¢
- May 15, 12:00 UTC · -23.9pp → 4¢
- May 14, 20:00 UTC · -27.2pp → 4¢
- May 14, 16:00 UTC · -19.0pp → 4¢
- May 14, 06:00 UTC · -15.8pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
midterm electionReason
Election markets are Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:02:19 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -17.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 9, 2026 (2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $643.17. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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