PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 17, 2026
Creator

Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$615.75

Liquidity

$1.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.1pp 7d
1007550250
99¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:05 UTC
updated 06:06:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-06Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 06:06Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • May 17, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 30h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

updated 06:06:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:06:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPresident of Andalusia after election?
Category · Politics

Market Description

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

president

Reason

Question text contains "president" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:06:01 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$615.75 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $11.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket