Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$19.45
Liquidity
$30.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.7pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Nov 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4000.8h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
mlb Reason
MLB — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:11:58 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.7pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 1, 2026 (2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$19.45 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $830.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $30.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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