GeopoliticsExpires —
Creator

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Probability

4¢

1h

-0.3pp

24h

-1.8pp

24h Vol

$41.32

Liquidity

$11.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
—
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
4¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:00 UTC
updated 07:01:04 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-01Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 4¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $11.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-1.8pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: +4.0pp at May 16, 08:00 UTC (to 8¢).

Show 3 hourly moves
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · +3.7pp → 8¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 8¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · +3.7pp → 8¢
updated 07:01:04 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:01:04 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

israel

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "israel" — matched the Geopolitics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:01:04 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.8pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$41.32 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $44.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket