SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 20, 2026
Creator

Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$14.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 20, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 11, 2026, 11:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 10:52 UTC
updated 10:52:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T10-52Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $14.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1501.1h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.4pp at May 15, 12:00 UTC (to 1¢).

Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · -4.3pp → 1¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · -4.3pp → 1¢
  • May 15, 16:00 UTC · -4.9pp → 1¢
  • May 15, 15:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 1¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 1¢
  • May 15, 12:00 UTC · -7.4pp → 1¢
  • May 15, 11:00 UTC · -4.7pp → 1¢
  • May 15, 10:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 1¢
updated 10:52:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 10:52:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:52:56 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 20, 2026 (2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

12 wallets
Open on Polymarket