Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-mark-tedford-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ok-01 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-mark-tedford-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ok-01/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 16, 2026

Creator

Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?

Probability

35¢

+3.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$4.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Scanner Market Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 16, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in th
Link
rnc.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+9.5pp 7d

35¢

May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:51 UTC

updated 09:51:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-51Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
02
Spread cost
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 16, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in th
Link
rnc.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Jun 16, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 686.1h
LOW
09:51Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.

Biggest hourly move: +32.0pp at May 13, 22:00 UTC (to 57¢).

Show top 8 of 66 hourly moves

May 14, 18:00 UTC · +28.0pp → 52¢
May 14, 10:00 UTC · +29.0pp → 54¢
May 14, 05:00 UTC · +29.0pp → 53¢
May 14, 04:00 UTC · +29.0pp → 54¢
May 14, 02:00 UTC · +32.0pp → 57¢
May 14, 00:00 UTC · +28.5pp → 53¢
May 13, 23:00 UTC · +31.0pp → 56¢
May 13, 22:00 UTC · +32.0pp → 57¢

updated 09:51:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 09:51:30 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:51:30 GMT, YES is priced at 35% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +3.0pp in the last hour, and +9.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 16, 2026 (2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $11.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 14.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket