Will Marlon Vera be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$504.12
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $504 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5437.7h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 20¢+2.0
Will Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $110.85
- 10¢0.0
Will Sean O'Malley be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will another fighter be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Fighter B be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Fighter D be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Fighter F be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 56¢-2.5
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $5.00
- 10¢+3.0
Will Umar Nurmagomedov be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $101.73
- 1¢-0.1
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 17¢0.0
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $718.3K
- 0¢-69.5
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs
Sports · Vol $693.6K
- 33¢+1.0
Spurs vs. Thunder
Sports · Vol $656.6K
- 1¢0.0
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $615.2K
- 0¢0.0
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $607.5K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Bantamweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Marlon Vera be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:19:18 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $64.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $504.12. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.