UnclassifiedExpires Jan 1, 2027
Creator

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?

Probability

6¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$226.17

Liquidity

$39.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
SEC filing
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.0pp 7d
1007550250
6¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:54 UTC
updated 07:56:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-56Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jan 1, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5469.1h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

updated 07:56:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:56:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:56:03 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jan 1, 2027 (2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$226.17 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $65.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $39.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket