PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jan 3, 2027
Creator

Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

Probability

17¢

1h

+1.1pp

24h

+6.8pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 3, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (27.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.4pp 7d
1007550250
17¢
May 11, 2026, 18:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 17:52 UTC
updated 17:52:27 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T17-52Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 7pp over 24h

    Now 17¢; +1.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 27.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jan 3, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5502.1h

    LOW
  • 17:52Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+6.8pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.

Biggest hourly move: -27.2pp at 07:00 (to 10¢).

Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
  • 07:00 · -27.2pp → 10¢
  • May 15, 23:00 UTC · +23.2pp → 40¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · +22.3pp → 34¢
  • May 15, 02:00 UTC · -26.6pp → 10¢
  • May 15, 00:00 UTC · -22.9pp → 17¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · -26.2pp → 10¢
  • May 14, 21:00 UTC · -20.6pp → 17¢
  • May 14, 19:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 17¢
updated 17:52:27 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 17:52:27 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventSpeaker of the House after the midterms?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

midterm election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 17:52:27 GMT, YES is priced at 17% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +6.8pp in the last 24 hours, +1.1pp in the last hour, and -0.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jan 3, 2027 (2027-01-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $64.88. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 27.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

7 wallets
Open on Polymarket