PoliticsExpires Nov 7, 2026
Creator

Will New Zealand First Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?

Probability

47¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$428.12

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (64.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-21.0pp 7d
1007550250
49¢
May 11, 2026, 11:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 10:24 UTC
updated 10:24:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T10-24Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 64.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Nov 7, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4141.6h

    LOW
  • 10:24Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 47¢.

Biggest hourly move: -13.5pp at May 17, 00:00 UTC (to 46¢).

Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
  • 07:00 · -12.5pp → 47¢
  • 21:00 · -12.5pp → 47¢
  • 13:00 · -12.5pp → 47¢
  • 11:00 · -12.5pp → 47¢
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 47¢
  • May 17, 03:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 48¢
  • May 17, 02:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 47¢
  • May 17, 00:00 UTC · -13.5pp → 46¢
updated 10:24:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 10:24:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventWhich parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
Category · Politics

Market Description

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

general election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will New Zealand First Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:24:17 GMT, YES is priced at 47% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -21.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 7, 2026 (2026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.56. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $428.12. Spread between best bid and best ask: 64.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

4 wallets
Open on Polymarket