SportsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Probability

81¢

1h

-2.5pp

24h

+5.5pp

24h Vol

$4.9K

Liquidity

$6.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
youtube.com
Link
youtube.com
Type
Source not classified
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.5pp 7d
1007550250
83¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:11 UTC
updated 06:11:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-11Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 6pp over 24h

    Now 81¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $6.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 76¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5441.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+5.5pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.

Biggest hourly move: -22.5pp at May 16, 23:00 UTC (to 72¢).

Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
  • 09:00 · -16.0pp → 78¢
  • 07:00 · -18.5pp → 76¢
  • May 17, 06:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 75¢
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 75¢
  • May 17, 03:00 UTC · -18.5pp → 76¢
  • May 17, 02:00 UTC · -18.0pp → 76¢
  • May 16, 23:00 UTC · -22.5pp → 72¢
  • May 16, 21:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 77¢
updated 06:11:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:11:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventSpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

stars

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "stars" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:11:58 GMT, YES is priced at 81% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +5.5pp in the last 24 hours, -2.5pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $30.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket