Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?
Probability
68¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$4.9K
Liquidity
$2.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 68¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 73¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 22, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 89.0h
Price movement
-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 68¢.
Biggest hourly move: -12.5pp at May 14, 18:00 UTC (to 64¢).
Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +11.5pp → 77¢
- 14:00 · +12.0pp → 77¢
- 09:00 · +11.5pp → 77¢
- May 14, 20:00 UTC · -11.5pp → 65¢
- May 14, 18:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 64¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 73¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 73¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 73¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
starsReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "stars" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:58:08 GMT, YES is priced at 68% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.0pp in the last 24 hours, -2.0pp in the last hour, and +6.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 22, 2026 (2026-05-22T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $16.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.