Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$430.09
Liquidity
$4.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occursTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occursTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5427.7h
- 20:20SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.4pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.1pp at May 15, 01:00 UTC (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 0¢
- May 15, 12:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 0¢
- May 15, 10:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 0¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 0¢
- May 15, 07:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 0¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 0¢
- May 15, 01:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 0¢
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 0¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ipo Reason
IPO markets are Business / corporate-finance events.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 20:20:15 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.4pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and -2.8pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$430.09 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $12.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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