Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.7pp
24h Vol
$683.44
Liquidity
$13.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s May monetary policy meeting, relative to the level itLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $13.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s May monetary policy meeting, relative to the level itLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 232.8h
- 07:12SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.7pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.9pp at May 14, 05:00 UTC (to 2¢).
Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
- May 14, 08:00 UTC · -6.7pp → 2¢
- May 14, 07:00 UTC · -6.6pp → 2¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · -6.9pp → 2¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · -6.3pp → 2¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · -5.9pp → 2¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 2¢
- May 13, 21:00 UTC · -6.6pp → 1¢
- May 13, 20:00 UTC · -6.7pp → 1¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s May monetary policy meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its May 28, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their May 28, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:12:02 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -5.3pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 28, 2026 (2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$683.44 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $20.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $13.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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