Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
Probability
21¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 24, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1589.6h
- 18:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Biggest hourly move: -18.0pp at May 14, 23:00 UTC (to 16¢).
Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 17¢
- May 15, 07:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 17¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 17¢
- May 15, 03:00 UTC · -18.0pp → 16¢
- May 15, 02:00 UTC · -18.0pp → 16¢
- May 15, 00:00 UTC · -18.0pp → 16¢
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · -18.0pp → 16¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
russiaReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "russia" — matched the Geopolitics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 18:23:43 GMT, YES is priced at 21% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and -12.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 24, 2026 (2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $118.61. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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