Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
-3.8pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$14.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 3¢; +0.3pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 16, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2895.1h
Price movement
-3.8pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.7pp at May 15, 17:00 UTC (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
- 08:55 · -6.0pp → 1¢
- May 16, 20:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 7¢
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · +6.3pp → 7¢
- May 16, 09:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 0¢
- May 15, 19:00 UTC · -5.4pp → 2¢
- May 15, 17:00 UTC · -6.7pp → 1¢
- May 15, 11:00 UTC · +5.6pp → 7¢
- May 14, 22:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 1¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
fedReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "fed" — matched the Macro rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:55:48 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.3pp in the last hour, and +2.6pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 16, 2026 (2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$5.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $115.67. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.3¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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