CryptoMulti-outcomeExpires Jan 1, 2027
Creator

Will the NYSE choose Ethereum?

Probability

23¢

1h

-11.6pp

24h

-7.6pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$337.63

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
x.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (44.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-17.1pp 7d
1007550250
31¢
May 11, 2026, 11:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 10:48 UTC
updated 10:48:32 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T10-48Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 8pp over 24h

    Now 23¢; -11.6pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 44.1¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jan 1, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5466.2h

    LOW
  • 10:48Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-7.6pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.

Biggest hourly move: -30.9pp at May 15, 11:00 UTC (to 12¢).

Show top 8 of 60 hourly moves
  • 02:00 · +24.6pp → 36¢
  • 23:00 · +24.2pp → 36¢
  • May 16, 13:00 UTC · -24.9pp → 23¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · -27.3pp → 12¢
  • May 15, 12:00 UTC · -27.1pp → 12¢
  • May 15, 11:00 UTC · -30.9pp → 12¢
  • May 15, 10:00 UTC · -28.3pp → 12¢
  • May 15, 08:00 UTC · -27.8pp → 15¢
updated 10:48:32 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 10:48:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhat chain will the NYSE choose for tokenized securities?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

NYSE has announced plans to launch a tokenized securities platform. More details can be found here: https://x.com/NYSE/status/2013263835549819097 This market will resolve to the blockchain that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) officially confirms it will use for the settlement of its tokenized securities platform. An official announcement, regulatory filing, or public statement from NYSE or ICE explicitly naming a blockchain will qualify for resolution and will trigger immediate resolution, regardless of whether additional blockchains are announced later. If multiple blockchains are officially confirmed at the time of the first qualifying announcement, this market will resolve to “Multichain.” If NYSE or ICE confirms the use of its own blockchain developed by or for NYSE/ICE—whether public or private, and whether developed independently or in partnership—this market will resolve to “Own Chain.” The primary resolution sources will be official announcements from NYSE or ICE, regulatory filings, or a broad consensus of credible reporting. If no blockchain is officially confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

ethereum

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ethereum" — matched the Crypto rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the NYSE choose Ethereum?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:48:32 GMT, YES is priced at 23% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.6pp in the last 24 hours, -11.6pp in the last hour, and -17.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jan 1, 2027 (2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $262.86. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $337.63. Spread between best bid and best ask: 44.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket