Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$518.77
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarySilver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026LinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 9¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarySilver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026LinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 302.9h
- 09:08SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.5pp at May 13, 23:00 UTC (to 11¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- 09:00 · -5.0pp → 9¢
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 16¢
- May 15, 23:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 16¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 14¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 10¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 10¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 11¢
- May 13, 22:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for May 31 is not published by June 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:08:48 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -8.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $168.86. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $518.77. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.