PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.4pp

24h Vol

$2.3K

Liquidity

$29.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.1pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:10 UTC
updated 06:10:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-10Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5441.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.4pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 06:10:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:10:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNext UK Prime Minister in 2026?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

prime minister

Reason

Prime Minister selection / confirmation markets — Politics regardless of country.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:10:43 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$2.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $283.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $29.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket