Distorted-Circulation
0x23eb447b90de5ce161e69edc318bbedabf91c516
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
147
Open notional
$347.36
Total PnL
$250.39
Realised
$240.66
Win rate
43%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 147- NO
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?
9 shares @ 94.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.26
$-0.20
- NO
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$5.00
$1.75
- NO
Will Judith Nakamura win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
5 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$4.99
$0.12
- NO
Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
5 shares @ 86.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 16, 2026$4.99
$0.69
- NO
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.98
$1.93
- NO
Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
5 shares @ 86.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.98
$0.68
- NO
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?
5 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.97
$0.52
- NO
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
5 shares @ 95.5¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$4.96
$0.19
- YES
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
5 shares @ 68.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.94
$1.54
- NO
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 73.5¢·now 98.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.93
$1.26
Recent activity
- REDEEMDid a crypto hedge fund blow up?$5.00May 18, 09:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$0.15May 18, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?$4.40May 17, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$0.61May 17, 04:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?$2.86May 16, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?$0.76May 15, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?$5.23May 15, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?$3.40May 14, 03:09 UTC
- REDEEMKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$5.00May 14, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$0.57May 12, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$2.00May 12, 19:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$0.17May 12, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$4.53May 12, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$0.78May 12, 08:02 UTC
- TRADESELLClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?$0.54May 11, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?$25.76May 11, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.30May 11, 07:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?$9.30May 10, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBill Clinton divorce by June 30?$0.15May 10, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?$0.60May 10, 11:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $7.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 01:35 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 09:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".