PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 31, 2026
Creator

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$12.8K

Liquidity

$36.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.1pp 7d
1007550250
99¢
May 11, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 04:02 UTC
updated 04:02:34 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T04-02Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1772.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

updated 04:02:34 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 04:02:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMaine Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

democrat

Reason

Question text contains "democrat" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 04:02:34 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 31, 2026 (2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$12.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.9M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $36.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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