Likely-Fugato
0x30382c307d6dc09f48685367927bb42d8e969368
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$5.6K
Total PnL
$255.24
Realised
$12.53
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1102 shares @ 88.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.1K
$80.60
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
1000 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$987.49
$28.50
- YES
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
1110 shares @ 77.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$949.17
$86.15
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
700 shares @ 60.2¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$479.51
$58.29
- NO
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
400 shares @ 61.6¢·now 93.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$374.40
$127.90
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
300 shares @ 68.7¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$247.49
$41.50
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
240 shares @ 83.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$238.44
$38.77
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
350 shares @ 64.6¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$222.25
$-3.75
- YES
Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$191.00
$11.00
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
200 shares @ 74.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$167.00
$19.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$142.00May 17, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$65.44May 17, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.10May 17, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$22.72May 17, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00May 17, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$100.00May 17, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$65.33May 17, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.00May 17, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.55May 17, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$15.85May 17, 13:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$0.49May 16, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$22.57May 16, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$1.28May 16, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$12.90May 16, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?$25.00May 16, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$3.17May 16, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$500.00May 16, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$0.08May 16, 08:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $59.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 00:53 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".