SportsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Probability

66¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$1.1K

Liquidity

$61.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+10.0pp 7d
1007550250
66¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:03 UTC
updated 06:03:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-03Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5441.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 66¢.

Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at 00:00 (to 68¢).

Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
  • 06:03 · +6.0pp → 66¢
  • 05:00 · +6.0pp → 66¢
  • 02:00 · +6.5pp → 66¢
  • 00:00 · +8.0pp → 68¢
  • 23:00 · +5.5pp → 65¢
  • 07:00 · +6.5pp → 65¢
  • May 17, 06:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 65¢
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 65¢
updated 06:03:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:03:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

uel-

Reason

Polymarket UEL fixture slug (UEFA Europa League) — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:03:22 GMT, YES is priced at 66% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +10.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$1.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $202.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $61.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket