PoliticsExpires Oct 4, 2026
Creator

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Probability

84¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$468.63

Liquidity

$18.9K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
dadosabertos.tse.jus.br
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.0pp 7d
1007550250
84¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:13 UTC
updated 06:13:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-13Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 84¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $18.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Oct 4, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3329.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 84¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at May 15, 18:00 UTC (to 83¢).

Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
  • May 16, 00:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 83¢
  • May 15, 23:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 83¢
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 83¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 83¢
  • May 15, 18:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 83¢
  • May 15, 17:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 83¢
  • May 15, 15:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 83¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 83¢
updated 06:13:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:13:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Category · Politics

Market Description

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

general election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:13:31 GMT, YES is priced at 84% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +2.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Oct 4, 2026 (2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$468.63 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $135.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $18.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket