Flickering-Alpha
0x3832289e6aca6b9444f6d9a4a2a8392f434535e1
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$-17.8K
Realised
$296.12
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
836 shares @ 64.0¢·now 64.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$540.82
$5.81
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
635 shares @ 63.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$460.64
$60.64
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
313 shares @ 48.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$223.44
$73.44
- YES
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
484 shares @ 62.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$205.65
$-94.35
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
313 shares @ 32.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$198.44
$98.44
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
216 shares @ 64.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$186.77
$47.77
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
222 shares @ 54.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$153.31
$33.31
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
245 shares @ 61.2¢·now 62.5¢·exp May 26, 2026$153.09
$3.09
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
270 shares @ 37.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$90.54
$-9.46
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
149 shares @ 67.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$88.81
$-11.19
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03May 18, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?$204.00May 17, 16:39 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$304.56May 16, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?$190.90May 16, 19:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 9, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$192.70May 8, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$149.46May 8, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$65.81May 8, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?$95.26May 8, 03:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?$15.18May 8, 03:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$29.60May 8, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?$18.34May 8, 03:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $112.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 23, 14:58 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".